Article source: Words Beyond Words
Last week, due to the disappointing US non-farm data (not only were July's new employment numbers lower than expected, but the data for May and June were significantly revised downward), the US announcement of a new round of import tariffs (the new tariffs will officially take effect on August 7, with some countries' tax rates reaching as high as 50%), and the combined impact of geopolitical tensions (last week, Trump made nuclear submarine threat remarks against Russia during an interview), the crypto market (including the stock market) experienced a new phase of volatility. BTC dropped from $120,000 to around $112,000, while ETH fell from $3,900 to around $3,300.
In terms of spot ETF inflows and outflows, the BTC ETF, which had maintained net inflows for seven weeks, began to experience net outflows last week, with net outflows reaching $643 million, as shown in the image below.
Although the macro factors have caused new market fluctuations and some ETF funds (buyers) have become cautious again, the continued buying behavior of major institutions/whales seems to indicate that their strategic reserve interest in BTC and ETH has not changed significantly, which to some extent alleviates the market volatility pressure.
Starting this week (8.4), the market showed some signs of rebound. As of the time of writing, BTC is maintained around $114,000, and ETH is maintained around $3,500, as shown in the image below.
Now the market structure has changed quite obviously. The once wild and free-spirited crypto market that advocated liberalism and community-led approach has now become a digital game controlled by governments, institutional investors (including whales), and industry insiders.
1. The Market Never Lacks Opportunities
In the previous article (July 30th), we discussed market opportunities more from an institutional perspective. Whether the market will have a better rebound performance may depend on several aspects, including:
- Upcoming US economic data (such as non-farm employment, inflation, etc.)
- Expectations of when the Federal Reserve will change its policy
- Whether trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions can be further eased
- Inflow and outflow of market funds (such as ETF fund trends, institutional accumulation, etc.)
Market prices are always changing, but often, people's emotions seem to be constantly repeating. Whenever prices rise rapidly, most people believe the bull market is coming; when prices plummet, most people think everything is over.
Different perspectives lead to different views or perceptions, which in turn bring different outcomes or endings. Compared to the emotional changes of people (within a certain range of retail investors), I am more inclined to focus on the flow of capital.
For example, many people still look down on the crypto industry, believing it's all hype and air, but significant funds continue to pour into the field. In terms of financing, according to public data, approximately 131 rounds of financing were conducted in the crypto field last month (July), with a total financing scale of $3.66 billion, as shown in the image below.
Moreover, since the beginning of this year (YTD), risk venture capital in the crypto field has reached $21.1 billion, already exceeding the total scale of $13.8 billion for the entire year of 2024.
It is evident that while the field still has some issues, it is maturing. If you have already entered this field but maintain a negative pessimistic attitude, you may continue to miss some new opportunities in the field.
When it comes to opportunities, this seems to be related to everyone's investment preferences. Opportunities vary from person to person.
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If you see someone making money from a certain coin, you immediately rush to buy at a high price. If you see a certain topic gaining popularity, you immediately participate. In your mind, you want to earn as much money as XX, or even become an overnight millionaire, but you ignore the process others went through to achieve such results.
The word "focus" is a term we often mentioned in our previous articles, and execution mainly refers to the action itself. These two should complement each other. For example, you can choose 1-3 sub-fields that interest you the most to maintain focus, develop a daily or weekly learning or research plan, and continuously optimize your execution strategy, rather than just focusing on K-line price changes or wallet balance.
Earnings are just a result; focus and execution are the process of achieving that result. Many people often fantasize or focus on how much money they want to earn, while neglecting the specific steps to earn that money, which easily leads to inner restlessness, lack of conviction, or losing direction.
In essence, true long-term stable earnings do not come from simple blind imitation or following, but from high-efficiency focus and strict disciplined execution. To put it simply, seizing opportunities for success is not about imagination, but about consistently doing repetitive and correct things in your focused field every day.
2) The second level is understanding and mastering consistency
Consistency mainly refers to maintaining rationality and making reasonable decisions in various environments (such as volatile markets). The simplest example is the position management concept we often mentioned in previous articles, which means that regardless of market changes, you can make the most suitable choice based on your position plan, rather than blindly chasing one-time returns (such as pursuing a 100x surge opportunity).
Whether in investment or entrepreneurship, what truly sets people apart is not a one-time lucky success or windfall, but maintaining long-term stable high win rates. Among the many experienced investors I know, the more successful ones are less likely to be tempted by sudden high-return opportunities, but instead maintain consistency and focus more on stable and replicable rhythms and strategies.
To put it simply, consistency is the basis for generating compound interest. We don't need to deliberately seek one-time huge profits; as long as we don't make serious mistakes or losses, and aren't easily eliminated by the market, we can achieve long-term continuous growth.
3) The third level is building your own advantages
As we've always mentioned in previous articles, everyone is an independent individual with vastly different backgrounds, experiences, risk tolerance, thinking models, knowledge, observation angles, and interest demands.
We can learn from others' advantages or perspectives to improve our methodology, but we shouldn't easily copy others' results, because the only thing a person can control is their own capability boundaries and cognitive advantages.
Perhaps you've heard that people can easily earn 100x or even 1000x by playing on-chain meme or MEME coins, but this doesn't mean you can seize such opportunities. Instead of wasting time asking around for get-rich-quick secrets, it's better to calm down and think about building your own advantages.
So how can you quickly build your own advantages?
The approach isn't actually difficult; we just need to break down our long-term goals. Here are two specific examples:
For instance, I used to like researching on-chain data, so I established a "data channel" system by continuously collecting, categorizing, and organizing over 300 data-related websites/tools in EXCEL. When everyone reads my articles, they often see various dimensional data or screenshots, which are the result of my organized data channels. Similarly, I further break down independent data summaries, such as the 40+ BTC indicators in the "Bitcoin Indicator Template" I previously shared, which is an important auxiliary reference for my long-term Bitcoin investment.
Another example is that during 2022-2023, I wrote some project research articles. To better understand or research projects, I designed a "Project Research Template" in EXCEL, summarizing and condensing key aspects to focus on. By scoring projects according to the template, I can quickly assess a project's potential by focusing on these points:
- The project's narrative alignment with the market and its cognitive degree (e.g., high visibility on social media)
- The project's product-market fit (PMF) and core growth indicator changes (Mindshare)
- Whether the project has good tokenomics (such as unlock situations, token utility, and community-first distribution)
Similarly, we can establish our own information channels, decision-making systems, data models, and circles based on our goals and needs.
In our view, long-term success isn't simply achieved through a few lucky instances, but through continuously building and accumulating one's advantages. A one-time or few-time success might earn you quick money, but only by building your own advantages can you maintain steady progress and navigate through bull and bear cycles. Especially in the investment market, the so-called "success shortcuts" you see or others show you are often traps. In the long run, the advantages you build are your strongest and most reliable opportunity guarantees.
We should not pursue "catching every opportunity" but instead find ways to become someone who "always has opportunities" - maintain patience, wait for the right moment, and don't fear missing out.
That's all for today. The image/data sources mentioned in the text have been supplemented in the Notion. The above content represents personal perspectives and analysis, serving only as a learning record and communication, and does not constitute any investment advice.
