These past few days of market movements have been making me feel a bit "worked up".
On one side, the market structure is frequently sending warning signals, while on the other side, mainstream cryptocurrencies are repeatedly oscillating. Short-term rebounds seem strong, but are actually lacking in confidence, and the market's rhythm is starting to become subtle.
Market Structure: Bitcoin breaks daily trend line, weekly top divergence
Let's first talk about #Bitcoin. Structurally, BTC has already fallen below the daily trend line since the 74,000 high point, which is a risk signal in itself. The bigger problem is that the weekly MACD top divergence signal is now clear, a situation that also occurred at the top of the previous bull market.
This means the market structure is shifting from "main uptrend" to "high-level oscillation or even distribution", especially now without incremental ETF funds supporting it. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the bull flag structure we were tracking has already broken, and after failing to break 11436, it has formed a clear downward channel.
Yesterday, BTC formed a small-scale head and shoulders bottom rebound near 1136, which I lightly followed with a long position, stopping in two stages, but the rebound momentum was too weak to reach the second stage.
Ethereum Performance: Faith Overcomes Structure, But Pressure Remains
#ETH is similar - although it broke through the hourly bull flag, it was constrained by the ascending wedge on the 4-hour chart, with a relatively weak trend.
From a larger cycle perspective, last month's monthly candle closed with a strong volume green candle, with bulls still in control, making its structure healthier than BTC.
However, the problem is that market expectations for ETH are too high. Once it can't go up, it can easily shift sentiment and kill valuation, leading to a short-term main uptrend interruption. So my strategy for Ethereum is: not actively adding, but also not easily shorting, continuing to wait for a clear direction.
Capital Trend Cooling: ETF Net Outflow for Four Consecutive Days
At the core, this round's key variable is "whether there's money to buy". BTC ETF has had net outflows for 4 consecutive days, with over $200 million flowing out last night, essentially the culprit of this decline. In contrast, ETH's ETF maintains moderate inflows, explaining why ETH's trend isn't as bad as BTC's. If this capital trend doesn't reverse, the rebound height is destined to be limited.
Altcoins: Increasingly Cold, Liquidity Being Drawn to Stock Market
#Altcoins are "falling into silence". From the market view, most altcoins have lost liquidity, with trading volume almost entirely supported by market-making robots. Especially for new projects with high FDV, retail investors have no confidence to take over.
Capital now tends to focus on "crypto stocks" and AI narratives - US stock market money is much hotter than the crypto market, and besides MEME, we can hardly find any new stories that can continuously attract funds. Macro-wise, the market is again worried about the combination of "economic stagflation + delayed interest rate cuts".
Hot Spot Observation: New ETH Ecosystem Coins Emerging, AVAX Oscillating
Several new projects on the ETH chain have performed well recently, such as:
- #bmnr: Currently has the most on-chain token holders, with a clear narrative;
- #sbet, #DYNX: Liquidity gradually increasing, with new institutional funds entering;
- #VIRTUAL: Significant intraday gains, platform traffic starting to shift.
Another one worth noting is #AVAX, currently oscillating in the large range between 15.5-27, suitable for medium to short-term trading.
Small Project News: PAWS Gaining Momentum, Worth Tracking
Another emerging new project is #PAWS, with good community enthusiasm and high Twitter topic volume, typical of a "small but beautiful" project. Currently small in scale, but if it gets KOL support or launches on a new platform, it could enter the hot spot.
Wish everyone won't be swayed by market emotions, and avoid frequently chasing highs and killing lows. Remember, those who can truly traverse bull and bear markets rely not on courage, but on rhythm.
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