Two days ago at the end of the article, a reader commented:
"This round can almost be described as a crash. The previous round of meme and DeFi markets were incredible, with numerous coins rising hundredfold from low to high positions. Even exchanges had coins like ETH, which rose over 50 times from $80 in 2018 to $4,500 in 2021. However, in this round starting from the 2022 low, almost no coin has reached a 50-fold increase, and many haven't even reached new highs. By mid-2025, most altcoins are still at low levels. If this continues until BTC starts declining, it will be a blow to everyone."
This comment brought back many memories for me.
Although the viewpoint and data presented in this comment seem "negative" and "bleak", many statements are quite close to reality.
For example, I quite agree with the view that this round can almost be described as a "crash".
Why say this round is almost a "crash"?
Because it simply cannot compare to the previous round's glory.
The comment mentioned two ecosystems: meme and DeFi, but in fact, the more exciting ecosystem that emerged afterward was Non-Fungible Token.
The ecosystem's explosion was one aspect, but more interestingly, these ecosystems emerged in a sequential manner. If we connect the timeline of these ecosystem explosions, we can clearly depict the magnificent landscape of the previous market cycle.
In my memory, MEME (shitcoins) was the first to emerge, followed by DeFi.
During the period after these two ecosystems emerged, Ethereum's growth was not yet significant and had not broken through its previous high.
Subsequently, after Ethereum broke through its previous high, MEME and DeFi continued to explode, triggering more users to rush into the crypto ecosystem.
After that, especially following the May 19th crash, MEME and DeFi calmed down and began to decline, while the Non-Fungible Token ecosystem started to take over.
Unlike other ecosystems, NFT assets were not priced in USDC/USDT, but in Ethereum. Therefore, when NFTs continuously set new highs, it meant that assets priced in Ethereum were also continuously reaching new heights. This provided a stronger leverage effect compared to MEME and DeFi priced in USDC/USDT.
So, in the previous market cycle, if investors had been buying Ethereum at low positions before these ecosystems exploded, even if they missed MEME and DeFi, as long as they caught the NFT trend, they would have good returns - the gains from NFTs would have a leverage effect that other ecosystems completely lacked.
That prosperity was not just quantitative - with multiple ecosystems emerging successively - but also qualitative, with each ecosystem creating a powerful "wealth generation" effect.
What we saw was a comprehensive, competitive, and splendid landscape.
I estimate that the number of new users attracted by the previous ecosystem's prosperity even exceeded those drawn in by ICOs in the previous round.
Such a magnificent scene is gone and cannot be seen in this round.
Although this round also has a meme ecosystem's prosperity, their taste and effect cannot be compared with the previous round's shitcoins and PEOPLE.
Although this round has the rise of some DeFi tokens, it cannot form a scale and ecosystem effect.
Although this round's Non-Fungible Token ecosystem has the resurgence of Pudgy Penguins, I always feel it's like the last rays of a setting sun. In terms of ecosystem, it's still struggling.
As for AI + Crypto that I've been closely following, at least until now, I can only say I'm continuing to wait and observe.
I originally thought this might be an accident in this market cycle, but after reading the memoir of KOL "Retail Investor Yi" on Xueqiu recently, I realized this is not an "accident", but an inevitable occurrence in any investment ecosystem.
Because the A-shares that were once despised had also staged such a magnificent scene.
In the early 90s, when there were only a few dozen or hundreds of stocks, the A-shares investors saw a situation almost identical to the previous crypto cycle:
As long as it was a stock, regardless of the company's quality, if investors could hold on, they could rise again and reach new heights even after a setback.
This situation continued until the late 90s, when with the A-shares' increasing size, number of stocks, and market value, a qualitative change occurred - no longer could one buy anything and see it rise.
The US stock market had long been like this: only profitable, promising tech companies would see sharp stock price increases, while numerous hopeless, valueless companies would remain stagnant for a long time.
I believe this round of the crypto ecosystem is a turning point.
From this market cycle onwards, it will be difficult for altcoins to surge again in the future. Projects that can truly rise will gradually return to fundamentals and value foundations.
As for "if this continues until BTC also turns downward, it will be a blow to everyone", I think this is an inevitable process of eliminating the inferior and preserving the excellent - both for projects and investors.
If you hold valuable projects, you can completely ignore this decline; if you still fantasize that your worthless projects will make a comeback, then that would indeed be a disaster.
