This week, the United States will face three key economic data points: July Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and retail sales data known as the "terror data". The market generally expects these three data points to be core signals for verifying the September Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. If CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, it may cause investors to partially reduce rate cut bets, driving the US dollar to strengthen in the short term and putting pressure on the crypto market; conversely, if retail sales data is significantly weaker than expected, it will highlight weak economic growth, thereby maintaining a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, limiting the dollar's rebound space and helping to support the prices of risk assets like Bitcoin.
Additionally, geopolitical attention has also increased. Trump and Putin are expected to meet in Alaska on August 15th to discuss the Ukraine situation and bilateral relations. The result of this meeting may again influence market risk appetite.
Overall, the core drivers of the crypto market this week will revolve around macroeconomic data and geopolitical events. Under the baseline scenario, if inflation data is moderate and retail sales are weak, Bitcoin is expected to continue its upward trend, challenging the $126,000 mark; however, if inflation unexpectedly heats up, there is a risk of price pullback to the $116,000-$118,000 range. Generally, this week may present a trading characteristic of "data-driven, amplified sentiment fluctuations".
