An analysis has been raised that the existing formula of the cryptocurrency market following a four-year rise and fall cycle centered on Bitcoin (BTC) halving is being shaken. Major investors and industry experts are diagnosing that the traditional cycle has already ended or is ending.
Jason Williams, a cryptocurrency investor and writer, recently claimed on his X (former Twitter) account, "The top 100 Bitcoin-holding companies hold almost 1 million BTC," and "This signifies the end of the Bitcoin four-year cycle." At the current market rate, 1 million BTC is equivalent to approximately $99 million (about 1.376 trillion won).
Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise Asset Management, backed Williams' claim. In a CNBC interview, he said, "While we can officially say it's over if there's a good return in 2026, I believe the four-year cycle is essentially over because I expect such returns to come." He had made similar remarks in an interview with Cointelegraph in July.
In the past three market cycles, Bitcoin prices always reached their peak one year after halving. This was consistently observed in cases from 2013, 2017, and 2021, with the next expected peak anticipated in 2025. However, with changes in market structure, full institutional inflow, and Trump's pro-crypto policies, signals are spreading that previous rules are no longer valid.
Experts view that various factors such as macroeconomic conditions, regulatory policies, and large investor holdings are beginning to dominate the market, rather than repeating cycles. This is interpreted as evidence that a new price formation mechanism beyond traditional models is operating as Bitcoin gradually establishes itself as a mature asset.
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