Market Insight: You Snooze, You Lose

Bitcoin tacked on ~2% gains over the past week—roughly a $3,300 lift—pushing the price into the $116K–$117K range, but still shy of the recent all-time highs at $123k. On Deribit, 30-day volatility remains in the 1% rank, measuring a 35% annualized volatility reading, striking distance from all-time recorded lows at 31.41 from July 2023.

The buzz around bitcoin treasuries continues to dominate headlines as corporates replace fiat with digital assets, and the US Dollar index (DXY) hovers around 1Y lows at 98.27. In financial headlines, President Trump announced a new executive order that would allow 401(k) investment funds to access alternative assets, including private equity, real estate, and digital assets.

July nonfarm payrolls came in at a disappointing 73K—not exactly “Goldilocks” territory. But the real surprise came with the revisions: May and June were revised down a massive 258K jobs—leaving a total gain of just 33K across two months. President Trump immediately fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, accusing her of “fudging” numbers—though he offered zero evidence. Former BLS leaders and watchdogs shot back, saying rigging these numbers isn’t easy.

With 23 days of August still ahead, the question is: will this be the typical summer doldrums month with low volatility and thin trading volume, or a crypto rollercoaster ride without an exit? Given the headlines that continue to roll in, and rate cuts on the horizon, I tend to think this isn’t a time you can really take your eyes off the market, but that could just be the chart junkie in me that doesn’t know how to unplug from TradingView.

That said, crypto headlines right now are pretty exciting. Every day, companies are announcing new bitcoin purchases, and political tailwinds are gusting in favor of digital assets. The Average True Range (ATR) of bitcoin – a daily measure of price volatility – sits at about 2500 points.

That means at current levels, we’re about 3 days away from price discovery mode. For my money, that means pay attention, you don’t want to be caught flat-footed when bitcoin is knocking on the ceiling.

See original post on X here.

Disclaimer

This article reflects the personal views of its author, not Deribit or its affiliates. Deribit has neither reviewed nor endorsed its content.

Deribit does not offer investment advice or endorsements. The information herein is informational and shouldn’t be seen as financial advice. Always do your own research and consult professionals before investing.

Financial investments carry risks, including capital loss. Neither Deribit nor the article’s author assumes liability for decisions based on this content.

AUTHOR(S)

RECENT ARTICLES