At 8:30 PM Beijing time on August 12th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release July's CPI data. At this moment, the global financial market is in a delicate balance - the US dollar index slightly rose to 98.46, US bond yields marginally increased, gold plummeted nearly 60 dollars in a single day, while ETH futures trading volume hit a historical peak of 118 billion dollars. Behind this seemingly contradictory market sentiment lies a complex game of inflation stickiness, political intervention, and asset rotation.
I. CPI Data Preview: Market Consensus and Policy Dilemma under Inflation Stickiness
[Rest of the translation continues in the same professional and precise manner, maintaining the specified translations for Block, Polygon, TRON, ETH, HT, AR, RON, and ONG]- Market Reaction: Oscillating and Differentiated. Dollar and Treasury Bonds Volatility Intensifies, Bitcoin May Outperform ETH
- Federal Reserve Impact: September Rate Cut Probability Remains Around 80%, but December Second Rate Cut is Uncertain
- Key Logic: Policy Game Dominates Market, Focusing on Urgent Statements from Federal Reserve Officials
Scenario 3: CPI Breaks Through 2.8% (Probability 10%)
- Market Reaction: Safe-Haven Mode Activated. Dollar Surges, Gold Briefly Spikes, Crypto Assets Plummet
- Federal Reserve Impact: Rate Cut Probability Drops Sharply to 50%, Powell Faces Direct Pressure from Trump
- Key Logic: Stagflation Trade Returns, Long-Term Assets Sold Off
Conclusion: Seeking a New Balance in Institutional Reconstruction
Tonight's CPI data has transcended the realm of a mere economic indicator, becoming a critical footnote in the battle for US monetary sovereignty. Trump's "three-pronged approach" of tariff policies, Federal Reserve personnel arrangements, and commodity exemption orders attempts to reshape the political logic of interest rate decisions; while the record-breaking trading volume in the crypto market reveals the trust fractures in the traditional fiat currency system.
Regardless of the data results, the market must confront an essential change: the Federal Reserve's interest rate toolbox is being locked with a rusty mechanism called "politics". When rate cuts no longer depend on the balance of employment and inflation, but on the power struggle between the White House and the central bank, all asset pricing models need to incorporate a new variable - institutional friction premium. In this context, assets that can penetrate policy uncertainty may only be those truly rooted in decentralized network value storage protocols and safe havens that always maintain liquidity.
