- Robert Mitchnick and Susan Athey’s 2018 study valued XRP up to $32 under adoption scenarios.
- Bitcoin is trading above the modeled fair value of $93,000 at $112,800, while XRP has remained stagnant around $3.
A resurfaced research paper co-authored in 2018 by Robert Mitchnick, now Head of Digital Assets at BlackRock, has drawn fresh attention to XRP’s long-debated value. The study suggested a fair value of $32 in favorable adoption and usage scenarios.
The analysis was conducted with Stanford economist Susan Athey during a period when Bitcoin was trading at about $7,000 and XRP was around $0.50. The two researchers viewed cryptocurrencies not as commodities or stocks but as financial assets for payments and storing value.
Their valuation framework was based on eight factors, including expected transaction activity, coin circulation, adoption timelines, reserve ratios, and discount rates. The study aimed to assess how much of global wealth and payment volume each digital asset could realistically capture over time.
BlackRock's Managing Director, Robert Mitchnick, researched future possible trajectories of $BTC and $XRP. A price target of $32.91 was given to XRP based on legitimate value propositions. pic.twitter.com/hgnbFLfv1N
— ALLINCRYPTO (@RealAllinCrypto) September 14, 2025
Bitcoin and XRP in 2018 Projections
Machank and Athey predict Bitcoin’s daily transaction value could rise from $5.6 billion to $28.2 billion by 2030. If it takes on a role like gold in preserving wealth, demand could reach $1.1 trillion to $1.6 trillion, giving it a fair value between $45,000 and $93,000.
Factoring in only a 30% chance of long-term survival, the expected range narrowed to $13,600–$28,100. The Bitcoin model assumed 18.2 million coins in circulation and stable adoption over 12 years.
For XRP, the study predicted much higher payment activity. By 2030, daily transactions could reach between $190 billion and $556 billion, including remittances, foreign exchange, and corporate transfers. If crypto makes up 15 to 30% of stored wealth, demand could grow to $1.6 trillion to $3.2 trillion.
Applying an 8.5% discount rate, XRP’s fair value was estimated at $6.37–$32.91. With only a 25% probability of success, the adjusted fair value landed at $1.59–$8.23. The model assumed the full 100 billion XRP supply, with 39.2 billion coins in circulation at that time and the rest locked in escrow.
Seven years on, outcomes vary significantly. Bitcoin trades around $112,800, exceeding the range predicted in the model. XRP sits close to $3, reflecting a fivefold increase but falling far short of the $32 valuation scenario.
Market Performance in 2025
Today, the crypto market is valued at $4.04 trillion, with Bitcoin holding a 55.6% share worth $2.25 trillion, generating $40.77 billion in daily activity. XRP holds a 4.5% share of the total market, valued at $168.42 billion, with $6.2 billion in daily trading.
Most observers link XRP’s weak performance to regulatory issues. The SEC lawsuit against Ripple in December 2020 limited its growth during years when other assets, especially Bitcoin, were benefiting from ETF demand and inclusion in corporate treasuries.
Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity service, which was central to Michnik’s predictions, has not achieved global dominance as expected. Ripple has since shifted its focus to areas like stablecoins, diluting attention on its original framework.
