Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Brief—your source for the most important crypto news of the day.
Grab a cup of coffee because markets are gearing up for a pivotal October with shifting signals, whispers of quiet liquidation , and unusual safe-haven flows. The mood is tense, the odds are tilted, and Bitcoin (BTC) is once again at the center of speculation.
Crypto News of the Day: Bitcoin Nears $120,000 as Markets Prepare for Almost Certain October Rate Cut
Bitcoin is trading at $118,746 , approaching the psychological $120,000 mark, as investors pile into assets seen as benefiting from loose monetary conditions.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is now pricing in a 99% chance of a rate cut in October, which is expected to move into the 3.75% to 4.00% range.
The reason for the decline was Wednesday’s ADP National Employment Report, one of the key labor market data investors are watching. The data showed that private payrolls lost 32,000 jobs in September, far below the 51,000 gain expected and marking the sharpest decline since March 2023.
ADP US employment. Source: Bloomberg FinanceAdding to concerns, August's jobs figure was revised from a gain of +54,000 jobs to a decline of -3,000, meaning two consecutive months of declines for private sector employment in the US.
Data and the partial U.S. government shutdown have kept investors in the dark. Key economic reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), including Friday's nonfarm payrolls, are suspended. If the shutdown drags on, even the October 15 CPI report could be affected.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin ETF inflows continue to support demand . However, the market remains vulnerable if the Fed hesitates.
According to TradFi, Deutsche Bank and ING have both warned of the risks of a prolonged shutdown, with Oxford Economics estimating GDP could fall by as much as 0.2% per week if the shutdown continues. However, seasonal optimism persists.
Safe-haven flows, liquidation and the Epstein perspective
While Bitcoin is taking the spotlight, veteran analyst Ira Epstein highlights that the liquidation dynamics driving gold and silver are also at play.
In his October 1 metals newsletter, Epstein pointed to expectations of Fed easing and government paralysis as factors driving flows into safe-haven assets.
“I predicted that we were going to have a rally in gold and silver,” he said .
However, Epstein noted that caution is needed as volatility increases, noting that bond and treasury bills are also attracting interest, reflecting broader uncertainty around U.S. policy data gaps.
For Bitcoin investors, the link between liquidation and asset behavior is notable. The same drivers that have pushed gold higher are reflected in the crypto's rise. These include a weaker US dollar, bond market strength, and a shift to safe-haven assets.
Unlike previous lockdown cycles , where volatility has generally been contained, the intersection of ETF inflows and near-certain Fed action is intensifying Bitcoin’s move. However, some warn that this rally is not invincible.
“A short shutdown could be just a blip for US stocks… But a prolonged coma and the mass layoffs that President Trump is threatening could do significant damage,” Fortune reports , citing Oxford’s Ryan Sweet.
That scenario could force the Fed to cut deeper, but could also trigger risk-off sentiment, which would hit highly volatile assets like BTC .
With $120,000 in sight and liquidation drivers on the rise, October could mark another important chapter in Bitcoin’s institutionalization.
This expectation comes as the pioneering crypto behaves less like a speculative outlier and more like a macro safe haven, even as politics and policy uncertainty cloud the path ahead.
Intraday chart
Probability of October rate cut. Source: CME FedWatch ToolAlpha byte size
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