TokenPost
Hello. This is the Token Post podcast.
Host
Hello.
TokenPost
Today is Tuesday, August 12, 2025. I've brought the Token Post AM Weekly Report for the 2nd week of August 2025 shared by our listeners.
Host
Yes, this is a report summarizing the market up to August 11th
TokenPost
That's right. While looking at this, I want to deeply understand the cryptocurrency market and major macroeconomic points from last week. There seemed to be some contradictory signals.
Host
Yes, that's right.
TokenPost
Let's take a look at what we should pay attention to.
Host
Yes, looking at last week, there were many concerns on the surface. There were talks that trade conflicts from the US could escalate
TokenPost
Ah, there was also talk about tariff increases.
Host
Yes, with the announcement of tariff increases for 66 countries, India also imposed a 50% high tariff rate, and the WTO growth forecast was lowered.
TokenPost
Yes, the global trade environment was quite unstable. The US unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%.
Host
These uncertainties definitely existed.
TokenPost
Despite this, the US stock market was quite strong. Especially with Apple surging by 12%, the Nasdaq reached an all-time high.
Host
Yes, not just the Nasdaq, but the S&P 500 index was also solid.
TokenPost
In this macroeconomic situation, how was our cryptocurrency market?
Host
The cryptocurrency market also showed overall strength. Based on Bitcoin, it rose 4.45% week-on-week, closing at $119,294.
TokenPost
I didn't know that.
Host
But there's something really worth noting here. The key driver of this upward trend
TokenPost
What is it?
Host
It's the US retirement pension market, estimated to be around $12 trillion, which has now allowed cryptocurrency investments.
TokenPost
$12 trillion? Isn't that an enormous scale?
Host
That's right. This is currently being analyzed as the decisive factor driving the strength of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin BTC and Ethereum ETH.
TokenPost
This could be the beginning of a structural change beyond just short-term positive news.
Host
Yes, there's definitely that possibility.
TokenPost
Shall we look at the internal market capital flow? Like market capitalization and dominance?
Host
The total cryptocurrency market cap increased by 6.5% over a week to $3.93 trillion. Quite an increase.
TokenPost
Yes, 6.5% is a significant increase.
Host
But here, the capital flow change is interesting. BTC dominance, the proportion of Bitcoin in the total market cap, actually decreased to 60.37%. A decrease of about 2.62%.
TokenPost
Oh, the BTC proportion decreased.
Host
In contrast, ETH dominance surged by 13.26% to 13.15%.
TokenPost
Funds have sharply shifted towards Ethereum.
Host
And the dominance of USDT, a representative stablecoin, also significantly dropped to 4.19%, a decrease of 8.51%.
TokenPost
So, BTC proportion decreased, ETH proportion significantly increased, and stablecoin proportion also decreased. Could this be interpreted as increased expectations for altcoins, especially Ethereum?
Host
Yes, there's definitely room for that interpretation. Usually, when BTC dominance drops, it suggests potential altcoin strength, and this week, Ethereum's strength was particularly notable.
Host
That's right. It shows the possibility of moving from stablecoins to other cryptocurrencies, or risky assets. If this trend continues, it could drop below 4%.
TokenPost
I see. Then how did market participants like institutional investors and other players move? Changes in positions?
Host
Looking at position changes, the difference in perspective is quite clear. Institutional investors are cautious. With major economic indicators like CPI and retail sales to be announced this week, they've reduced long positions in preparation. They're managing short-term risks.
TokenPost
Ah, institutions are being careful.
Host
Yes, but leverage funds are the opposite. They've reduced short positions and increased long positions.
TokenPost
Instead betting on the upside
Host
Yes, this seems to focus more on short covering, where buying pressure to close existing short positions could drive prices up. The CME Bitcoin futures open interest has slightly decreased.
TokenPost
That's interesting. While institutions are being cautious, leverage funds are seeing short-term rise potential, and the outlook seems to be diverging. What should we look at from a technical analysis perspective?
Host
Yes, analysts believe it's very important to maintain the BTC price at the $118,000 level.
TokenPost
$118,000?
Host
If this support line is maintained, we can expect additional rises, but if it breaks, it could be risky. There's a gap in the CME futures market.
TokenPost
Ah, yes, the price difference section.
Host
Exactly. There could be a downward movement trying to fill that gap, so some preparation is needed.
TokenPost
Understood. There are also many important economic indicators and cryptocurrency-related events this week.
Host
Yes, this week is quite busy. For economic indicators, the US CPI on Wednesday the 13th and PPI on Thursday the 14th.
TokenPost
Yes.
Host
On Friday the 15th, retail sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be announced. These are all important.
TokenPost
That's right. The key will be how they compare to expectations.
Host
Yes, and in the cryptocurrency sector, there are token unlock volumes planned for projects like Solana, Aptos, Avalanche, and Sei. There's also the Stellar Protocol 23 testnet launch.
TokenPost
Ah, the token unlock volume could be a bit burdensome.
Host
Yes, it could be in stages.
TokenPost
What's the interest rate outlook now that the September FOMC is approaching?
Host
Based on the Fed Watch, the market is seeing a very high possibility of a rate cut at the September FOMC. There's an 88.4% chance of dropping to between 4.00 and 4.25%, lower than the current rate.
TokenPost
At 88.4%, it's almost certain.
Host
Yes, the market is almost taking the September rate cut as a given.
TokenPost
So, to summarize, last week had global trade risks and policy uncertainties, but the strong tailwind of US retirement fund cryptocurrency investment permission and tech stock rally supported the market.
Host
Yes, there was a structural momentum.
TokenPost
However, seeing the divergent positions of institutions and leverage funds, we can say that opinions are divided about the short-term direction.
Host
That's right. We need to observe it step by step. This week, the economic indicator results like CPI and retail sales, and the monetary policy statements from the Jackson Hole meeting next week will likely determine market direction, and BTC's defense of the $118,000 support line will be crucial. Yes, you summarized it precisely. Volatility could increase before and after the indicator announcements, so we need to be careful.
TokenPost
Yes, as we conclude today's analysis, I'd like to ask our listeners: Is this possibility of US retirement fund inflow truly the decisive turning point for cryptocurrencies entering the mainstream financial system?
Host
That's an important question.
TokenPost
Or is it just another manifestation of a highly volatile market that still largely fluctuates according to interest rates and macroeconomic indicators? We'll need to continue observing how the market receives this - whether it's the beginning of structural change or just a temporary momentum.
Host
Yes, it's an interesting point that needs continued tracking from a long-term perspective.
TokenPost
This was the TokenPost podcast.
Host
Thank you.
