Ethereum is gaining attention as its price rebounds above $3,700, while Bitcoin (BTC) remains near $114,000.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate is now entering a critical stage. With Bitcoin dominance weakening, if it can break through the current resistance zone, ETH could open a new growth cycle.
ETH/BTC Rise
The ETH/BTC ratio is currently 0.03059. It has been fluctuating near the bottom range for almost a year and is now approaching an important technical resistance level. There is a cyclical phenomenon where ETH/BTC rebounds whenever it reaches these lows.
According to X analysis, this trading pair is approaching resistance at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. This is a point often interpreted by technical traders as a signal of trend reversal.
Another analyst mentioned that the current market structure of ETH/BTC is very "bullish".
However, to break out of its sideways trend, ETH must carefully observe another important indicator: Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D). According to MerlijnTrader, BTC.D has begun to show signs of weakening, with liquidity gradually moving to altcoins, especially ETH.
"When BTC.D falls and ETHBTC rises, the true alt season will begin," an analyst on X observed.
The 62% zone of BTC.D is currently a sensitive threshold. Analyst Daan warned that if BTC.D passes this level, the market could turn favorable for Bitcoin. In that case, ETH could continue to underperform.
Optimistic Outlook... Caution Needed
In the current situation, veteran analyst Thomas Lee suggested that ETH could reach $16,000 if ETH/BTC returns to its 2021 peak (~0.08837). However, this appears to be a long-term price projection.
From another perspective, BitMine BMNR argued that if ETH/BTC maintains the same ratio as August 2024 (~0.050), ETH could reach around $5,700 based on BTC's current price.
"ETH is a much better risk/reward today," BitMine BMNR mentioned.
While many predictions for ETH are optimistic, the market seems relatively quiet. According to Polymarket, there is a 54% probability that ETH will reach a new all-time high (ATH) before 2026.
Currently, ETH is trading in the $3,700 zone. To surpass the ATH from November 2021, it would need to grow by about 25%.
