After Bitcoin broke through $122,000 over the weekend and then sharply dropped on Monday, investors are strengthening their defensive positioning ahead of the US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement on Tuesday.
According to Dex Screener option market data, demand for put options in the $115,000-$118,000 range has surged, with August expiration put options accounting for 40% of total open interest. This reflects maintaining long positions while preparing for potential price shocks from the CPI announcement.
According to CoinShares, despite a net inflow of $571 million into Bitcoin ETFs last week (August 5-9), the proportion of hedging positions in the derivatives market increased by 15% compared to the previous week. This indicates a spread of risk management-based investment, unlike past one-sided bets.
Market attention is focused on how this CPI figure will impact expectations for the Fed's September rate cut. Economists forecast July CPI at 2.8% year-on-year. If the actual figure exceeds this, rate cut expectations could weaken, potentially burdening cryptocurrency liquidity, while a lower figure could provide additional upward momentum.
While experts acknowledge the possibility of short-term adjustments, they still assess the structural upward trend as intact. Based on the halving cycle and institutional fund inflows, the year-end target of $150,000 is maintained, with this CPI announcement expected to be a key variable determining future direction.
